The first meeting of the 2001-2002 academic year for the Memphis, TN chapter of the American Meteorological Society took place at 7:00PM on Thursday, September 27, 2001 at the National Weather Service Forecast Office at Agricenter International. There were approximately 25 people in attendance.

Chairperson Erik Proseus opened the meeting with the introduction of the officers for this year. They are: Erik Proseus - President, Jon Howell - Vice President and Michael Wroten - Secretary/Treasurer.

Dues were the first topic of discussion as we have raised the yearly fee from $5 to $10. There was no objection to the increase which was implemented to better support the chapter with an increase of options for our semi-monthly meetings. 

We then talked about future meetings and the introduction of a semi-monthly Dutch Treat lunch that would take place on the off months from the formal meeting. We also talked about the Southeast Severe Storms Symposium that Mississippi State University is hosting. The date was in question but it has been confirmed that it will be held on February 15-17, 2002 at MSU. If you are interested in attending, please let one of the officers know.

The last topic of discussion was the survey that was e-mailed out to the membership in late August. There was a great response to the survey and it will help the officers immensely in planning for the future.

The featured speaker for the evening was Mr. Bill Bullock, Assistant Manager of Energy Resources at Memphis Light, Gas and Water (MLG&W).  Mr. Bullock's topic was on how MLG&W uses weather forecasts to predict energy loads, planning gas purchases, and how their crews handle inclement weather. He began with an overview of MLG&W and how they are supplied by the Tennessee Valley Authority exclusively. MLG&W is the largest TVA user taking up to 11% of the TVA load. He then showed diagrams and maps of the Natural Gas pipeline network, the Liquified Natural Gas stations around the city, as well as the water systems.

MLG&W uses various sources for weather data but the main vendor is WeatherBank, which supplies them with RADAR and lightning data, as well as forecasts. They also get data from the NWS, DTN, and the Internet.  When scheduling restoration crews, due to thunderstorms, high winds or winter weather (the dreaded ice storm), they look 6 hours out to determine how many dispatchers and technical support people to bring in.

Scheduling energy purchases is a much more involved process. Power is bought hourly and they are not allowed to purchase energy outside of the TVA. With average temperature the most important parameter in their forecasts, they use the acquired weather data to run a model to better estimate what and how much to purchase. Along with current data, they also look at historical and climatological data to better help them make their decisions. With the skyrocketing prices of natural gas last winter MLG&W has implemented a "hedging" policy that allows them to have extended contracts with the price of natural gas locked in. It was explained that while this is good for winters, such as the near record usage winter of last year, it increases the overall costs to the utility for winters that are milder due to the higher overall costs.

Mr. Bullock then discussed the cost of a missed forecast, which is generally described as actual temperatures more than +/- 5F from what was forecasted. With depletion of reserves to the cost of natural gas on the spot market to pipeline penalties to the last resort of cutting utilities to industrial users, it could be quite an impact to the Memphis and Mid-South economy. The night was closed out with a short question and answer period with Mr. Bullock.

We want to thank Mr. Bullock for coming and giving the presentation and hope to see everyone at the next meeting on November 14th, 2001.

Respectfully Submitted,
Michael Wroten - Secretary/Treasurer

Minutes Approved
Erik Proseus - President